Regression Analysis

Purpose

The constant increase of online universities has become a serious problem for conventional colleges. The universal database of online colleges has been able to attract a lot of students due to the huge amount of flexibility that these online universities can provide to students. The retention rate and graduation rate of students from online universities have increased significantly in the recent past in the United States. The United States has become one of the countries with the most number of online educational institutes which clearly shows that the interest of the students has increased in the online (Lee & Choi, 2011). The main focus of the present analysis is to understand and assess the relationship between the number of students retained and the number of students graduating from online universities in the United States to see how interest in online education has gradually developed over the years.

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Background

Over the last few years with the priority of the internet increasing in people’s lives it has almost become an integral part of the daily activities that an individual does. Nowadays the internet is the solution to almost everything right from shopping, to education everything is done through the internet which has drastically changed lives. Sitting back at home and getting everything near you has made man lazy but this hasn’t reduced the enthusiasm of people to use the internet. The rise of the online education industry is another example of people becoming laid back in the 21^st century. At present, in the United States, there are several online education institutions offering undergraduate, graduate, and higher-level courses that have made a lot of students realize it’s a better option for them and hence it has increased the rate of students opting for online courses over the years (Boston et al., 2011). Another key reason online education has been a hit among students is due to its inexpensive and easily accessible method of providing education but after certain periods students are inclined to leave the course especially since it has been noticed that students tend to leave the course after the completion of the first year which puts a question mark on the capability of these online educations to retain students which has a direct relationship between the number of students graduating from these online educational institutes (Boston et al., 2011). The relationship between retention and graduation in the conventional colleges largely differs from that of the online colleges and hence it is important to understand the relationship between these two to get the best possible result for the study.

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Methods

In every research analysis, it is important to use the right methods that ensure effective results from the analysis, and hence for every analysis, it is important to have the right kind of analysis tools. In the present study, a dataset is already given and as per the instructions the retention rate is considered as independent of any factor on the other hand the graduation rate is considered to be a dependent variable that could be manipulated by different factors. In the present study, the main focus would be to see how the independent variable which is the retention rate of students manipulates the dependent variable which is the graduation rate with the help of linear regression. Quantitative analysis will be implemented with the help of the data given in the Excel about the colleges where the sample size is 29 online colleges from the United States and the retention rate and graduation rate of all these colleges have been given. A quantitative analysis will be implemented with the help of MS Excel and Pearson Correlations. The Linear regression is shown as Y= bX + A.

Here Y is the dependent variable b is the gradient of the line X is the independent variable and A is the intercept point on the Y axis which would help to see if any kind of change in the independent variable will directly alter the dependent variable. The R Squared is measured by the probability curve and the result is given below:

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ATTRIBUTES	RR %	GR %
MEAN	57.41379	41.75862
STANDARD DEVIATION	23.24	9.87
MINIMUM	4	25
MAXIMUM	100	61

2) The Scatter Diagram is the reflection of the positive relationship between the two variables which shows that an increase in the retention rate is likely to increase the graduation rate from these colleges. The trend line clearly shows this and the R-squared measure is also shown which is 0.449 which also reflects a positive relationship between both these variables.

Scatter Diagram

Taking the retention rate as the independent variable calculating the linear regression shows the relationship both of these variables have between each other. Below the table of relationship between graduation rate and retention rate is further mathematically discussed.

Variables	Graduation Rate
RR	0.285***
	0.0606
Constant	25.42***
	3.764
Observations	29
R-Squared	0.449

Graduation Rate: a+B* Retention Rate a=constant B= Parameter

This shows that a one percent increase in the retention rate is going to increase the graduation rate by 0.285 which could be considered as a 0.1% increase statistically. It further shows a positive and progressive relationship between retention and graduation. Calculations It is obvious that even though there is a relationship between retention and graduation the dependent variable (graduation rate) is not completely dependent on the independent variable (retention rate) and hence other key factors have to be calculated. It is also important to understand the difference in results, especially for the University of Phoenix which has a low retention rate and low graduation, and other key factors that have to be concluded to adjust that properly.

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Discussion

The present analysis has been done with the help of quantitative data presented in an Excel sheet with a sample size considered in the form of 29 colleges with their retention rate and graduation rate provided. Quantitative analysis tools like MS Excel and Pearson Correlations Table have been utilized to get the best possible results. To evaluate the relationship between the retention rate and graduation rate of the 29 online colleges in the United States simple linear regression and Scatter diagram has been used which have been approximated to get suitable result. From the assessment, it has been found that both the variables retention rate and graduation rate have a positive and progressive relationship between them. Even though all the professional quantitative tools have been utilised it is important to understand that the complete analysis would not fit between both these variables and retention rates are merely a part of understanding the variations in graduation rates and hence it could only show nearly 50% of the variation.

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Recommendations

Even though the study has been effective in showing the relationship between retention rate and graduation rate it could be said that it does not show a complete clear picture of the other factors that are also liable to create variations in the graduation rates apart from retention rate. It is important to note that for an analysis to be done on this it takes more time which has not been possible here hence all the key factors couldn’t be discussed in this study and so for a research analyst it is important to have all the factors which would help to come to a confirmed conclusion and not merely giving conjectural views. To get results supported by evidence it is important to have significantly relevant materials for other factors as well as hence it is recommended to have further studies based on this subject with the help of qualitative data as well and by implementing a mixed method which would help to support the results in a simultaneous process and will also help to understand the other key factors like period of the course, domain, budget creating the variation in graduation rates. Overall it could be said that there still lies a future scope of research that could address the questions that have been overlooked by this analysis to focus on the given variables.